Could (Another Level of) the Speculator Boom Be Coming?
The supply chain is causing all kinds of problems in comics. Another might be coming soon.
I love talking to people who work at comic shops. They’re some of the most interesting people in the industry to me. Part of that is because of my lasting desire to own my own shop. My intrigue is naturally baked in. But much of it comes from the fact that they’re the only people who actually see what people are truly reacting to in comics. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve brought something up to a retailer that I thought or heard to be true, only for them to respond with the verbal equivalent of a scrunched-up face. They often have a better feel for what’s real and what isn’t in comics than most. So, when one of them points out a potential trend to me, I take it seriously, as the shops I talk to aren’t prone to hyperbole. 17
That happened recently. I was chatting with a retailer when they shared a building concern. It was part of a larger conversation, but the short version was this: could the current supply chain issues that are affecting comics create a new level to the speculator feeding frenzy we’ve been seeing? 18
It wasn’t something I had thought of before, even when I looked at this issue a few months back. But it makes sense when you think about it. One of the most crucial elements of speculation in 2021 is scarcity. Whether you’re talking the size of a print run or the total population of high-grade copies of key comics, value and available quantity are tethered together, even if that can be a flimsy line of thinking. 19 And if the supply chain issues – either from unpredictable releases, shorted inventory, or situations like Image’s removal of second prints – create natural product limitations, then there’s the potential that everything could become even more appealing to the resell crowd.
For retailers, this would make their jobs more difficult, as the prospect of warding off even more speculators trying to buy a stack of some random title “for their nephews” 20 is enough to make them consider early retirement. For readers, swarms of flippers eating up the week’s releases will make it more difficult for them to try new titles. And for publishers, this could lead to short-term gains but long-term losses, as titles crater when customers don’t return for subsequent issues at shops when they lack the heat of previous ones.
The world of comics retail is reliant on reducing as many variables as humanly possible. That helps minimize risk while maximizing profit. Now, speculators can lead to an increase on the latter. More copies being sold per release means more revenue, which can be a positive. But that’s only if this behavior fits within expected levels. If a new level to this boom is found, then the situation could get pretty nervy for everyone.
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That is not the case for all retailers, though.↩
And by speculator feeding frenzy, I mean the significant increase in volume and interest in people who are buying comics for the purpose of reselling them.↩
If x comic only has 4,000 copies ordered, that could mean that it’s just not appealing rather than an opportunity for investment.↩
The “nephews” part of that scenario is a real story a retailer told me before. The shop had a limit of copies per customer, so the person created a bevy of nephews apparently desperate for the new hot thing. Fictional family members are a speculator’s best friend!↩
Not all of them are strictly for those products, but still.↩
It was at $42.50, with the cost on bags and boards supplier BCW’s site being $22.98 for the same products. The only problem with that latter price is current bags are on backorder to February of 2022. So it’s more theoretical than anything.↩
Final Order Cutoff is the last time shops can change orders before they lock. It’s often called FOC. I will refer to it as that going forward.↩
Or so they say. Both publishers have long been enthusiastic about finding ways to shorten that window. This gives them something that’s difficult to argue with. Supply chain!↩
The two biggest drivers of orders for shops are pre-orders and previous sales numbers. Now shops have to effectively use pre-orders as their guide alone, at least for early issues from DC and Marvel.↩
That communication also helps customers understand it isn’t shops at fault, which is essential to maintaining a good relationship, as one retailer told me.↩
One person suggested that supply chain fears could also reduce scarcity, as shops might order deeper to be left lacking, making the product less desirable to speculators. I could also see that being true.↩
I feel like we’re going to see that play out this week. What’s The Furthest Place from Here? #1 and its deluxe edition are going to draw attention from this crowd both for the comic and the even more limited record that comes with. I wouldn’t want to have to buy that on eBay.↩
Not for Higgins, though. He said his shop is rolling deep on new titles anyways, as there are a lot of “people test-driving new series these days,” to the point he doesn’t really need later prints. That said, I’m not sure how widespread that adoption rate is.↩
He described them as a “very recent phenomenon.”↩
BOOM! feels like the publisher who leaned hardest into this, starting around Once & Future’s launch.↩
He said Challengers has increased their orders on DC titles by half, resulting in about half of the publisher’s releases selling above what their original orders would have been. That’s a substantial gain.↩
That is not the case for all retailers, though.↩
And by speculator feeding frenzy, I mean the significant increase in volume and interest in people who are buying comics for the purpose of reselling them.↩
If x comic only has 4,000 copies ordered, that could mean that it’s just not appealing rather than an opportunity for investment.↩
The “nephews” part of that scenario is a real story a retailer told me before. The shop had a limit of copies per customer, so the person created a bevy of nephews apparently desperate for the new hot thing. Fictional family members are a speculator’s best friend!↩