Let me tell you: predictions are difficult.

It’s not a game I play very often, if only because a) guessing where the comic industry will go is a good way to be wrong all the time and b) I prefer talking to people about why things happened (creatively or business-wise), and that story is only told in retrospect. That’s why I typically take the coward’s way out and do things like, “Five Big Questions about the Direct Market as the Calendar Turns to 2023.” If you pose it as a question, you’re just wondering, not predicting. That’s easier, and it results in less egg on your face when you’re invariably wrong somewhere between zero and five times. 1

This year, though, I’m not going to go the easy route. Out are the questions! In are predictions! Today, the takes will be hot 2 and the prognosticating will be out of control 3 as I share six predictions about the world of comics in 2024, or most typically, the direct market space in the new year. Oooo! Look at me, starting the year off all bold and everything.

But as they say, with a new year comes a new you, so let’s see how I do as I try to swing for the predictive fences and make contact as I do. With each of my six takes, I’ll include a confidence level that’s on a ten-point scale. This will indicate how certain I am that my prediction will come true, with one being a total shot in the dark while ten is one you can lock in right now. That means there are two levels of predictions to this article. What could possibly go wrong with that idea? 4

Wish me luck!

2024 Will Be Better For the Direct Market Than Most Expect (but it won’t feel like it!)

One of the ongoing themes from my conversations with tuned in folks from the retailer, publisher, and creator set is that public sentiment can often be way behind where private takes are, at least when it comes to where things are in the direct market. For example, by the time Mark Millar turned the comics retail discourse into an ongoing MMA style octagon, most of his talking points had been out there for a while. That doesn’t mean they weren’t valid. They just were problems that had already been discussed at length, many of which were already being assessed and hopefully worked on behind-the-scenes by the powers that be.

That’s part of the reason I’m making this prediction. I’m not saying that the private conversation has turned all sunshine and roses. But enough people I trust are hopeful for 2024 or believe that positive change is on the horizon that I suspect this year will actually be better than the consensus believes it will be. That’s not to say it will be like the pandemic surge of 2021 all over again. We’re not talking record-setting numbers or anything. But incrementally better than 2023, with signs of recovery and a strong lead in to 2025? That feels possible, especially if the direct market can get through the first quarter relatively unscathed with what looks like a pretty shallow list of potentially hot books. 5

One thing that’s important to remember is that comic publishers typically plan in long arcs, ones that take at least 12 to 18 months to pay off. Little happens quickly in that space, and for understandable reasons. That means that by the time publishers became aware of the changing winds of the direct market, a conversation that likely kicked off in the fourth quarter of 2022 or so, adjustments wouldn’t have been felt until…well, 2024. I suspect we’ll start seeing some of those adjustments play out soon, and hopefully that will lead to gains this year.

The challenge of that, of course, is that the conversation will again lag reality, especially with no sales charts. It’s not going to feel like things are better. But if you told me that my mid-year retailer check-in ends up being meaningfully more positive than the one I’m putting together for January, I would not be surprised in the slightest. We’ll see, though!

Confidence Level: 4

We’ll Finally Get Another Saga (and by that, I mean another tentpole comic for shops to sell)

One of the things I’ve talked to creators about privately is that there are a lot of interesting plans cooking. Big names doing big things, whether that’s in the for-hire space or in the creator-owned one. The pandemic fears went away, at least in the market, and so balls went into motion that were held up for quite some time. That means that a lot of those big plans that were held up are coming together — and doing so quickly.

We already know about some of the potentially big 2024 releases. 6 Rick Remender’s taking massive swings over at Ghost Generator. Geoff Johns, Brad Meltzer, Gary Frank, and friends are launching Ghost Machine in a major way in January. Kieron Gillen’s talked about assorted projects that are on the horizon in his newsletter. James Tynion IV’s launching Spectregraph at DSTLRY with Christian Ward and cooking up some interesting things both at BOOM! and with his creator-owned works. The X-Men are getting a new direction under the guidance of editor Tom Brevoort. The Ultimate Universe is launching anew, with a surefire headliner in Jonathan Hickman and Marco Checchetto’s Ultimate Spider-Man featuring a married Peter and MJ. The Energon Universe continues forward, with Cobra Commander seemingly having some surprising spice to it. It’s not the same species, but I think DC’s Compact Comics could pop. There’s a lot of interesting things on the horizon, and that’s just the known tip of the iceberg.

That’s why this prediction is one I’m slightly more confident about than I would be usually. Retailers desperately want another Saga, and by that, I mean another tentpole comic that inspires customers to come into the shop and discover other titles in the process. That’s one of the most painfully lacking things in the market right now. Despite the quality, excitement levels have largely flattened out. Very few releases are revving customer engines in the way comics like The Walking Dead or House of X/Powers of X did previously. My take is we’ll get one of those, or maybe even two. Or three! I don’t want to get greedy, but 2024 seems like it could be a year of big swings, and ones with a lot of care and consideration behind them. Very few people go in assuming said big swings won’t connect, but of late, they just haven’t. I believe one (or some) will this year.

Confidence Level: 5

People Will Be Mad About Tom Brevoort’s X-Men (regardless of what it is)

Take this one to the bank already.

It’s a lock.

Vegas has taken it off the board.

Betting is closed.

This isn’t even a merit statement about what Marvel’s Executive Editor and VP of Publishing Tom Brevoort is cooking up for the new era of the X-Men that’s coming in July. It’s just a fact. Whatever comes next will either be a) the same-ish or b) different from the Krakoa Era that has preceded it, and given how strongly X-Men fans react to everything, either move will likely be perceived as a mortal sin. My guess is built around a phrase that has been ringing through my head about this: Back to BasiX. 7 That isn’t a suggestion that’s what this era will be called, of course. It’s just that my belief is this era will be more familiar than what we’ve seen from Krakoa.

Which, isn’t too surprising, right? Both the X-Men and other superhero lines have historically oscillated between bold status quos and returns to the classic flavors. My read is that this line will be more of the latter after the atypical (and often exciting!) stretch Marvel’s Merry Mutants just went through, doubling down on the things that historically worked with some experimentation on the periphery that fits the publisher’s current approach to its line.

Now, I could be very wrong about this. But I’m certain of one thing: there will be strong feelings about what it is no matter what! Strong enough to be a hit? I’m not sure. But people will be talking, and that’s typically a good starting point to build from.

Confidence Level: 11

A Single-Issue Comic Will Have a Cover Price of $10 (or more)

Do I want to be wrong about this one? Yes.

Do I think I will be? No.

Cover prices continue to rise and rise and rise, and we’ve already reached the point where a single new issue of a comic — albeit a triple-sized one — had a cover price of $9.99. 8 We’re already knocking on the door! Do we really think that someone won’t take that last step into double digits? Or that surging costs won’t continue to drive costs up even higher for some? At the very least, can Marvel, or some surprising contender, really resist that $10.99 price point?

I suspect not.

Confidence Level: 8

There Will Be Consolidation in the Direct Market (but it might not be what you expect)

Last year, I openly wondered if there were any direct market publishers that wouldn’t make it to 2024. Unless I missed something, that did not happen. And this prediction is not necessarily me suggesting that it will happen in 2024 instead. But I do think that we’ll start to see some level of consolidation in the direct market this year, and that could come in a couple different forms if it isn’t in the players involved.

The two most likely are the comics that are published, or the variants produced. I know both seem unlikely to diminish in a down period for the market, given that more, more, more seems to be the answer everyone has to solving the current slate of problems. But as Comichron’s John Jackson Miller revealed in a recent thread on X, the combined slate of releases in the market — meaning main covers, variants, and graphic novels/manga — has reached an honestly outrageous level. Even with total single issue comic releases still down from before the pandemic, there were nearly 41% more print comic products dropped on shops compared to 2018. That’s simply untenable.

This one is an optimistic, rose-colored glasses take probably, because I know — and publishers know — a lot of the profit in the market these days comes from variant covers. But I know — and I suspect they know — that gravy train can’t continue onwards forever. My prediction is we’ll see fewer variant covers and fewer individual comics published in 2024 relative to 2023, and that a chunk of that will be thanks to the Big Two (but probably DC) adjusting to the current environment and how shops are ordering some of the more questionable products they’ve put together. I’m not confident on this one, simply because it’s the only answer most publishers seem to have. But something has to give, and I think we’ll start to see some of that start to happen this year.

Confidence Level: 3

Ngozi Ukazu’s Barda is Going to Be Awesome (alongside a great many other comics)

This is an important place to finish, because as per usual, it’s a crucial reminder to everyone in the current environment. Comics? They’re fine. In fact, they’re pretty awesome right now. And they’re looking pretty awesome in 2024 as well. I mean, DC had Ngozi Ukazu — the incredible cartoonist behind the webcomics-turned-First Second hit Check, Please! — write and draw a graphic novel about Big Barda, one that’s assuredly going to be a mix of funny, heartfelt, insightful, and a whole bunch of other things, because that’s how Ukazu rolls. That’s coming in June, and my belief is it’s going to rule, because the cartoonist is incapable of making comics that do anything else.

This year will feature a lot of great comics from a lot of great creators and a lot of great publishers, many of which we don’t even know about yet. Barda’s a known known, but a lot of unknown comics will end up thrilling and delighting us throughout 2024. I don’t even think this should count as a prediction. The mere existence of comics in the current environment, given the legions that are released, almost assures us that we’ll be replete with wonderful reading material. But it’s an important thing to remember when the discourse turns sour and the great comic wars begin on social media once again. Comics! They’re still good! And they will be in 2024, regardless of the sentiment some might put out there!

Confidence Level: 10