Let me tell you: predictions are difficult.

It’s not a game I play very often, if only because a) guessing where the comic industry will go is a good way to be wrong all the time and b) I prefer talking to people about why things happened (creatively or business-wise), and that story is only told in retrospect. That’s why I typically take the coward’s way out and do things like, “Five Big Questions about the Direct Market as the Calendar Turns to 2023.” If you pose it as a question, you’re just wondering, not predicting. That’s easier, and it results in less egg on your face when you’re invariably wrong somewhere between zero and five times. 15

This year, though, I’m not going to go the easy route. Out are the questions! In are predictions! Today, the takes will be hot 16 and the prognosticating will be out of control 17 as I share six predictions about the world of comics in 2024, or most typically, the direct market space in the new year. Oooo! Look at me, starting the year off all bold and everything.

But as they say, with a new year comes a new you, so let’s see how I do as I try to swing for the predictive fences and make contact as I do. With each of my six takes, I’ll include a confidence level that’s on a ten-point scale. This will indicate how certain I am that my prediction will come true, with one being a total shot in the dark while ten is one you can lock in right now. That means there are two levels of predictions to this article. What could possibly go wrong with that idea? 18

Wish me luck!

2024 Will Be Better For the Direct Market Than Most Expect (but it won’t feel like it!)

One of the ongoing themes from my conversations with tuned in folks from the retailer, publisher, and creator set is that public sentiment can often be way behind where private takes are, at least when it comes to where things are in the direct market. For example, by the time Mark Millar turned the comics retail discourse into an ongoing MMA style octagon, most of his talking points had been out there for a while. That doesn’t mean they weren’t valid. They just were problems that had already been discussed at length, many of which were already being assessed and hopefully worked on behind-the-scenes by the powers that be.

That’s part of the reason I’m making this prediction. I’m not saying that the private conversation has turned all sunshine and roses. But enough people I trust are hopeful for 2024 or believe that positive change is on the horizon that I suspect this year will actually be better than the consensus believes it will be. That’s not to say it will be like the pandemic surge of 2021 all over again. We’re not talking record-setting numbers or anything. But incrementally better than 2023, with signs of recovery and a strong lead in to 2025? That feels possible, especially if the direct market can get through the first quarter relatively unscathed with what looks like a pretty shallow list of potentially hot books. 19

One thing that’s important to remember is that comic publishers typically plan in long arcs, ones that take at least 12 to 18 months to pay off. Little happens quickly in that space, and for understandable reasons. That means that by the time publishers became aware of the changing winds of the direct market, a conversation that likely kicked off in the fourth quarter of 2022 or so, adjustments wouldn’t have been felt until…well, 2024. I suspect we’ll start seeing some of those adjustments play out soon, and hopefully that will lead to gains this year.

The challenge of that, of course, is that the conversation will again lag reality, especially with no sales charts. It’s not going to feel like things are better. But if you told me that my mid-year retailer check-in ends up being meaningfully more positive than the one I’m putting together for January, I would not be surprised in the slightest. We’ll see, though!

Confidence Level: 4

We’ll Finally Get Another Saga (and by that, I mean another tentpole comic for shops to sell)

One of the things I’ve talked to creators about privately is that there are a lot of interesting plans cooking. Big names doing big things, whether that’s in the for-hire space or in the creator-owned one. The pandemic fears went away, at least in the market, and so balls went into motion that were held up for quite some time. That means that a lot of those big plans that were held up are coming together — and doing so quickly.

We already know about some of the potentially big 2024 releases. 20 Rick Remender’s taking massive swings over at Ghost Generator. Geoff Johns, Brad Meltzer, Gary Frank, and friends are launching Ghost Machine in a major way in January. Kieron Gillen’s talked about assorted projects that are on the horizon in his newsletter. James Tynion IV’s launching Spectregraph at DSTLRY with Christian Ward and cooking up some interesting things both at BOOM! and with his creator-owned works. The X-Men are getting a new direction under the guidance of editor Tom Brevoort. The Ultimate Universe is launching anew, with a surefire headliner in Jonathan Hickman and Marco Checchetto’s Ultimate Spider-Man featuring a married Peter and MJ. The Energon Universe continues forward, with Cobra Commander seemingly having some surprising spice to it. It’s not the same species, but I think DC’s Compact Comics could pop. There’s a lot of interesting things on the horizon, and that’s just the known tip of the iceberg.

That’s why this prediction is one I’m slightly more confident about than I would be usually. Retailers desperately want another Saga, and by that, I mean another tentpole comic that inspires customers to come into the shop and discover other titles in the process. That’s one of the most painfully lacking things in the market right now. Despite the quality, excitement levels have largely flattened out. Very few releases are revving customer engines in the way comics like The Walking Dead or House of X/Powers of X did previously. My take is we’ll get one of those, or maybe even two. Or three! I don’t want to get greedy, but 2024 seems like it could be a year of big swings, and ones with a lot of care and consideration behind them. Very few people go in assuming said big swings won’t connect, but of late, they just haven’t. I believe one (or some) will this year.

Confidence Level: 5